100 million Americans could be diabetic by 2050

NUMBER OF AMERICANS WITH DIABETES 
PROJECTED TO DOUBLE OR TRIPLE BY 2050
 
As many as 1 in 3 U.S. adults could have diabetes by 2050 if current trends continue, according to a new analysis from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Proper diet and physical activity can reduce the risk of diabetes and help to control the condition in people with diabetes.

WHAT IS DIABETES?
Diabetes is a disease in which the body has trouble processing sugar. In the classic form of diabetes, traditionally diagnosed in children or young adults, the body does not produce enough of a hormone called insulin to help sugar get into cells. That's Type 1 diabetes.

Another form of diabetes, Type 2, now accounts for about 95 percent of cases. In that kind, the body's cells resist insulin's attempts to transport sugar. Type 2 is most common in people who are overweight and obese, in people 60 and older, and in African-Americans and other minority groups.

One in 10 U.S. adults has diabetes now.

THE HEALTH COSTS OF DIABETES
Diabetes was the nation's seventh leading cause of death in 2007, is the leading cause of new cases of blindness among adults under age 75, kidney failure, and non-accident/injury leg and foot amputations among adults.

Diabetes is a large contributor to heart attacks and strokes. "It's also now linked to a form of dementia, some forms of cancer and some forms of lung disease. Diabetes impacts so many systems in the body," said Ann Albright, PhD, RD, director of CDC's Division of Diabetes Translation.

The report estimates that the number of Americans with diabetes will range from 1 in 3 to 1 in 5 by 2050. That range reflects differing assumptions about how many people will develop diabetes, and how long they will live after developing the disease. The growth in U.S. diabetes cases has been closely tied to escalating obesity rates. Recent CDC data suggests obesity rates may have recently leveled off. But the new estimates should hold up even if obesity rates remain static, CDC officials said.

"These are alarming numbers that show how critical it is to change the course of type 2 diabetes," said Albright. "Successful programs to improve lifestyle choices on healthy eating and physical activity must be made more widely available, because the stakes are too high and the personal toll too devastating to fail."

THE FINANCIAL COST OF DIABETES
A price will be paid if the projections go unheeded, experts say. People with diagnosed diabetes have medical costs that are more than twice that of those without the disease. The total costs of diabetes are an estimated $174 billion annually, including $116 billion in direct medical costs.

Previous research has suggested that the financial burden may easily double in the next 20 years, says David Kendall, chief scientific and medical officer of the American Diabetes Association.

"The financial burden is potentially a very, very troublesome one," Kendall says.

WHAT CAN BE DONE?
CDC and its partners are working on a variety of initiatives to prevent type 2 diabetes and to reduce its complications. CDC's National Diabetes Prevention Program, which launched in April, is designed to bring evidence-based programs for preventing type 2 diabetes to communities. The program supports establishing a network of lifestyle intervention programs for overweight or obese people at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes. These interventions emphasize dietary changes, coping skills and group support to help participants lose 5 to 7 percent of their body weight and get at least 150 minutes per week of moderate physical activity.

The Diabetes Prevention Program clinical trial, led by the National Institutes of Health, has shown that those measures can reduce the risk of developing type 2 diabetes by 58 percent in people at higher risk of the disease.

Programs and policies to prevent obesity and diabetes need to be put in place at every level, says Duke University Medical Center endocrinologist Susan Spratt, who says schools are a good place to start. Healthful food options in schools and daily physical education classes should be a priority, she says.

"Vending machines should not sell sugar soda or candy bars. School fundraisers should not revolve around unhealthy food," says Spratt, who adds that cities need to be pedestrian-friendly, bike-friendly and safe.